Past two years, the domestic methanol market has experienced a wave of volatility. From 2008 the price of methanol is about 1400 yuan to 2010 methanol price trend in the 2,500 or so. See lower demand for methanol in China to maintain a high growth, high prices. Market participants generally agreed that, after the Chinese New Year holiday to one end of the quarter, methanol weak market outlook is still upside in 2010, the year of methanol market is not optimistic.
View from the January market. Weaker domestic methanol market volatility. Although methanol is not high capacity utilization, no significant increase in the absolute supply, but weak demand, continued low trading volume, methanol factory sales are sluggish, with companies hoping to force the price of the intention of methanol difficult. However, because methanol supply shortages in Asia for some time will not change, corresponding to alleviate pressure on the domestic market, and coal, the cost of higher energy prices on the support of methanol, the manufacturer may take limited measures to maintain prices, so late Methanol prices relatively limited space.
From the demand perspective. Methanol production capacity in 2010 of more than 50 million tons, up about 51 million tons; new capacity more than 18 million tons, representing an increase of 58% in 2009. 2010 domestic methanol supply rate remains steady up trend is expected to 18.6 million tons, representing an increase of 22.9% in 2009. The import supply accounted for 22.6% of total supply. However, in accordance with the 2009 domestic demand for 15.12 million tons of methanol and lower apparent demand growth of 10% of up to 2010, demand for only less than 17 million tons of methanol. China’s methanol production capacity of the serious oversupply led directly out of the hardship facing the difficult market outlook. After the Spring Festival and even the first quarter of this year, in the domestic coal, natural gas, the cost of high pressure and methanol prices flank upside is difficult under the domestic methanol production capacity or to continue the case last year, the serious idle, the average operating rate will be less than four into.
From the perspective of foreign enterprises. Foreign enterprises Yilangzhage Ross Petrochemical Consortium (ZagrosPetrochemicalComplex) the first two methanol plant will be officially put into operation in February, when Iran’s methanol output will reach 6050 tons. According to Iran’s SHANA news agency reported that Yilangzhage Ross Petrochemical Company in 2004 with a German company Lurgi and Iran Petrochemical Industries Design and Engineering Company (PIDEC) signed an international consortium to build a methanol production unit that contract. This device is planned to produce 1.65 million tons of methanol, the output will account for 12% of global methanol production.
From the short and long term market view. Methanol demand accounting for 30% of the total formaldehyde in the industry since 2008 and has maintained a state of oversupply. Formaldehyde production in 2009 a negative growth of demand for development in 2010 the average growth rate of formaldehyde or simply to remain at 4% to 5%, which is undoubtedly for the methanol market, a big bad; followed in recent years, starting shortly before the dimethyl ether industry, because of their rapid development, so that cities in the alternative gas, alternative fuel diesel engines do, so pure burning vehicle fuel and other large-scale applications have not yet carried out before, had an oversupply situation, and the current very difficult to fundamentally changed. The first quarter of 2010, the domestic equilibrium price of methanol will be possible in the 2550 yuan.
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